Who will win, should win and can’t win at this year’s Academy Awards
By Mark Fields
The 94th Academy Awards will be held on Sunday, March 27. Here are Out & About’s film critic’s takes on what cinematic efforts will win, what should win, and what can’t win (because it wasn’t nominated).
Will Win/Should Win: The Power of the Dog
This bracing Western features a incredibly strong cast, exquisite scenery, and an ever-so-sly screenplay that surprises and gratifies in the final moments.
Can’t Win: Spider-Man: No Way Home
No love from Oscar for Marvel movies including this clever, satisfying tribute to heroes and villains present and past.
Will Win: Olivia Coleman, The Lost Daughter
Should Win: Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Coleman is an Oscar darling and past winner. She again creates a memorable film character but props to Stewart who has overcome her Twilight image to prove a substantial albeit unconventional actor.
Can’t Win: Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth; Lady Gaga, House of Gucci.
Will Win/Should Win: Will Smith, King Richard
Smith has peppered his marquee-idol career with thoughtful, even compelling dramatic roles. He is due. But shout out to Benedict Cumberbatch for his nuanced work in The Power of the Dog.
Can’t Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, Just Look Up
The wacky sci-fi premise of the film and flamboyant performances of his co-stars overshadowed the subtle, off-brand DiCaprio, not usually known for understatement.
Will Win/Should Win: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Campion’s assured hand and precise pacing kept this sleeper story from descending into genre cliché. Just when you thought you have it all figured out, she executes a stunning but truly inevitable switcheroo.
Can’t Win: Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Dune left me cold and bored, but many Arakis fans and cinephiles alike praised the director for making an understandable film out of sci-fi’s densest source material.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Should Win: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Simmons gets kudos for playing a sympathetic version of a familiar Hollywood star of yesteryear, but Smit-McPhee’s quiet grit really deliver the ending of the film.
Can’t Win: Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win/Should Win: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
DeBose could be the second actress to win an award for this same role, but her vibrant, passionate performance (and exceptional dancing) pervades the entire film.
Can’t Win: Caitriona Balfe, Belfast; Ruth Negga, Passing
Always a category jammed with great performances but only five can get the call.
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win/Should Win: Belfast
Kenneth Branagh’s heartfelt tribute to his Northern Irish childhood will carry the day with Oscar voters.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Drive My Car
Should Win: The Power of the Dog
Screenplay awards are often consolation prizes for solid films that don’t have support to win the major prizes, but the excellent actors and director of The Power of the Dog had to have great material to work with.
Can’t Win: Tony Kushner, West Side Story
Kushner largely re-imagined a 60-year-old movie story into a newly relevant and substantial remake, while finding a deft way to bring the indomitable Rita Moreno back to the screen and to this landmark musical.